COST changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $904.71 → $922.77(+2.0%)
- Next earnings
- Sep 24, 2026 → Dec 24, 2026
- Next earnings is estimate
- No → Yes
- Thesis
- Costco trades removed: around $904.71, above the analysts' intrinsic value. Unlike added: at a removed: typical pick on this list, Costco is not cheap relative to that estimate; the question is why investors keep paying a premium removed: for it. The main reason is that Costco's added: because its membership model produces unusually predictable, recurring removed: profit: 82.9 million paid households renew at added: profit. Renewal rates added: sit near record removed: highs, 92.2% in the US and Canada and 89.7% worldwide as of the most recently reported quarter, and membership added: highs. Membership fee income alone covers roughly half of operating removed: profit, insulating added: profit. This insulates results from swings in merchandise pricing. removed: On top of that stable base, sales added: Sales also keep growing removed: quickly: fiscal 2026 net sales rose 10.2% to $297.3 billion, added: quickly, and removed: digitally-enabled comparable sales grew nearly 18% in August 2026 alone. The added: the board removed: also keeps removed: returning cash to shareholders, raising the removed: quarterly dividend removed: to $1.47 per share in April 2026 and paying removed: a $12-per-share special removed: dividend in January 2026. That mix of low uncertainty and steady double-digit growth is why the stock trades near 48 times trailing earnings versus about 26 times for the S&P 500: investors added: payouts. Investors are effectively paying for removed: certainty. The fiscal fourth-quarter report, due after added: certainty, since the removed: market closes on September 24, 2026, is added: stock trades at a removed: near-term test of whether added: much higher earnings multiple than the broader market. For that added: premium to be earned, comparable-sales growth and removed: those renewal rates removed: are added: need to keep holding removed: up. The honest counter-case: added: up as temporary boosts from gasoline prices and calendar timing fade. Tariff costs also need to stay manageable, since Costco says it is trying to absorb rather than pass on these costs. Fiscal fourth-quarter results, reported September 24, 2026, showed sales still growing at removed: today's added: a double-digit pace and renewal rates still near records. That supports the premium removed: there is little room for removed: a stumble. added: now. The next test comes with first-quarter fiscal 2027 results, expected around December 2026, once the temporary boost from gasoline prices has likely faded. If removed: comparable-sales growth cools added: sharply once removed: gasoline-price and calendar tailwinds fade, if tariff costs squeeze Costco's already thin merchandise margins, or if added: those boosts are gone, the removed: market simply re-rates a mature retailer back toward a more ordinary multiple, the stock added: premium could removed: fall a long way even if added: fade over the removed: underlying business keeps performing fine. added: next two to four quarters.
- Recent events
- Sep added: 24, 2026: Costco reported Q4 fiscal 2026 and full fiscal-year results. Fourth-quarter net sales were $93.9 billion, up 11.2%, and diluted EPS was $6.75 (including $0.15 from one-time IEEPA tariff refunds), up from $5.87 a year earlier. Full fiscal-year net sales were $297.2 billion, up 10.1%. Membership fee income was $1.85 billion, up 7.3%, with 150.4 million total cardholders and an 89.8% worldwide renewal rate. Sep 17, 2026: Costco expanded its partnership with DoorDash to a nationwide U.S. launch, letting members order same-day delivery from any domestic warehouse. Sep 2, 2026: Costco reported August 2026 sales and closed fiscal 2026: full fiscal year (52 weeks ended August 30, 2026) net sales were $297.3 billion, up 10.2%. Fourth-quarter (16 weeks) net sales were $93.9 billion, up 11.3%, and August net sales alone were $23.70 billion, up 9.9%, with digitally-enabled comparable sales up 17.9% for the month. May 28, 2026: Costco reported Q3 fiscal 2026 results: net sales of $69.15 billion, up 11.6%, and diluted earnings per share of $4.93, up from $4.28 a year earlier. Membership fee income was $1.37 billion, up 10.7%, with the US/Canada renewal rate at 92.2% and the worldwide rate at 89.7%. Apr 15, 2026: Costco's board raised the quarterly cash dividend from $1.30 to $1.47 per share ($5.88 annualized), the company's 22nd consecutive annual dividend increase, payable May 15, 2026. Mar 5, 2026: Costco reported Q2 fiscal 2026 results: net sales of $68.24 billion, up 9.1%, and diluted earnings per share of $4.58, up from $4.02. Membership fee income rose 13.6% to $1.35 billion, with 82.1 million paid members and an 89.7% worldwide renewal rate. Jan 16, 2026: Costco paid a special cash dividend of $12.00 per share, announced in December 2025, distributing about $5.3 billion to shareholders. Dec 11, 2025: Costco reported Q1 fiscal 2026 results: net sales of $65.98 billion, up 8.2%, and diluted earnings per share of $4.50, up from $4.04. Membership fee income rose 14% to $1.329 billion, and digitally-enabled comparable sales grew 20.5%.