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BSX

Current
Price
$45.13
Discount category
Close to intrinsic value
Next earnings
Jan 28, 2027
Next earnings is estimate
Yes
Company name
Boston Scientific
Sector
Medical devices
About
Boston Scientific makes medical devices that doctors use in minimally invasive procedures. Its Cardiovascular segment sells pulsed field ablation systems such as FARAPULSE for atrial fibrillation, the WATCHMAN device that lowers stroke risk, devices for coronary and peripheral arteries, and cardiac rhythm products. Its MedSurg segment sells endoscopy, urology and neuromodulation products. The company sells mainly to hospitals and clinics, and about two thirds of sales are in the United States. Net sales were $5.14 billion in Q3 2026. It grows with new products, clinical data that widens their use, and acquisitions; it agreed to buy Penumbra, a maker of thrombectomy devices, in January 2026. From January 1, 2027, it will report three segments: Interventional Therapies, Rhythm Solutions and MedSurg.
Thesis
The market no longer pays for the fast growth that Boston Scientific had in 2024 and 2025. Competitors now also sell pulsed field ablation systems, and sales in the two main U.S. growth businesses now fall. In Q3 2026, U.S. electrophysiology sales fell 8% and U.S. WATCHMAN sales fell 7%, as management said on the call, according to a press transcript. A cybersecurity incident on August 25, 2026 also cut Q3 sales growth by about 300 basis points, and organic growth was only 1.5%. The company expects Q4 2026 sales to fall 1% to 3%. The CEO said that 2027 will be the low point of the cycle and that sales and adjusted EPS will be hard to grow in 2027 without Penumbra. For the gap to close, four things must be true. U.S. electrophysiology and WATCHMAN sales must stop falling, with new FARAPULSE products, the next WATCHMAN device and clinical data. Customer orders lost to the cyber incident must come back. The Penumbra purchase, which the company now expects to close in early 2027, must get its remaining regulatory clearances and add growth. The 2026 restructuring plan, which targets about $500 million of yearly savings, must protect the margin. The next evidence comes with the Q4 2026 report and the 2027 guidance in early 2027, and then with the quarterly reports of 2027. If growth returns in 2028, as management expects, the gap can close over the next four to eight quarters. The main reason it may not close is a longer loss of electrophysiology and WATCHMAN sales to competitors.
Risks
Sales in the largest U.S. growth businesses now fall. In Q3 2026, U.S. electrophysiology sales fell 8% and U.S. WATCHMAN sales fell 7%, as management said on the call, according to a press transcript. Competitors also sell pulsed field ablation systems, and management expects 2027 to be the low point of the cycle. The cybersecurity incident of August 25, 2026, disrupted manufacturing and shipping. It cut Q3 2026 sales growth by about 300 basis points, and management expects a further effect of 200 to 300 basis points in Q4 2026 while customers rebuild their stock, as a press transcript of the call reports. Investigations, litigation and harm to customer relations can follow. The Penumbra purchase, valued at about $14.5 billion when announced, is under FTC review since a Second Request on March 16, 2026. On October 28, 2026, the company said that it now expects to close in early 2027, after the remaining regulatory clearances. Boston Scientific has $6 billion of term loans ready for the deal, so debt will rise, and a block or a longer delay is possible. A securities class action filed on March 5, 2026, claims that the company made misleading statements about guidance and U.S. electrophysiology growth. The case is at an early stage.
Balance sheet
Cash: $609M Debt: $12.0B Net debt: $11.3B Interest cover: 11× Debt due within 12 months: $1.0B Boston Scientific funds itself with senior notes, commercial paper and bank facilities. At September 30, 2026, debt was $11.95 billion: $1.04 billion of current debt, which included $1.03 billion of commercial paper, and $10.91 billion of long-term debt. Cash was $609 million, down from $1.97 billion at December 31, 2025, after the $2 billion share repurchase and the $1.5 billion investment in MiRus. Interest cover is operating income divided by interest expense for the first nine months of 2026. The covenant leverage ratio, total debt to EBITDA as the credit agreements define it, was 1.95 times against a limit of 3.75 times. The limit rises to 4.75 times for four quarters after an acquisition of more than $1 billion. For the Penumbra purchase, the company signed a $6.0 billion term loan agreement and a $2.0 billion 364-day revolving credit agreement on February 26, 2026; it can draw the term loans only at closing. It plans to pay about $11.0 billion of the Penumbra price with cash and new debt, and the rest with its own shares, so debt will rise when the deal closes. As of Sep 30, 2026.
Checkpoints
Oct 28, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings and updated outlook after the cyber incident. Failed. Watch: A clear recovery plan, with most lost sales expected back by early 2027 and U.S. electrophysiology growth that does not slow further, passes; a large cut to the outlook or a longer disruption fails. Outcome: U.S. electrophysiology sales fell 8%, the company cut its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $3.16 to $3.18, and it expects Q4 2026 sales to fall 1% to 3%. Oct 28, 2026: Penumbra purchase closes in 2026. Failed. Watch: FTC clearance and closing in the second half of 2026, as the company expects, pass; an FTC challenge or a delay into 2027 fails. Outcome: On October 28, 2026, the company said that it now expects the purchase to close in early 2027, after the remaining regulatory clearances. Jan 28, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 earnings and 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: Q4 sales near the guided fall of 1% to 3% and 2027 guidance with some growth in organic sales and adjusted EPS pass; guidance of falling sales or adjusted EPS fails. Q1 2027 (estimate): Penumbra purchase closes. Pending. Watch: Closing in early 2027 with no large required sales of businesses passes; an FTC challenge or a delay past mid-2027 fails.
Recent events
Nov 2, 2026: Boston Scientific said that the SIMPLAAFY trial of the WATCHMAN FLX Pro device met its primary endpoints at six months. The trial had 1,857 patients in the US. After the implant, aspirin alone and a reduced dose of an oral anticoagulant alone each were non-inferior to dual anti-platelet therapy, with less bleeding and the same ischemic stroke rate of 0.7%. These single-drug regimens are not yet approved for the device. Oct 28, 2026: Boston Scientific reported Q3 2026 results. Net sales grew 1.5% to $5.138 billion, on a reported and an organic basis. Adjusted EPS was $0.73, down from $0.75. The company cut its 2026 guidance to organic sales growth of about 3.75% and adjusted EPS of $3.16 to $3.18, and it expects Q4 2026 sales to fall 1% to 3%. On the call, as a press transcript reports, management said that the cyber incident cut Q3 sales growth by about 300 basis points, that U.S. electrophysiology sales fell 8% and U.S. WATCHMAN sales fell 7%, and that it now expects the Penumbra purchase to close in early 2027. It also said that 2027 will be the low point of the cycle. Oct 7, 2026: Boston Scientific promoted Joe Fitzgerald, head of the Cardiovascular group, to Chief Operating Officer from January 1, 2027. From that date, it will report three segments: Interventional Therapies, which will include Penumbra after closing, Rhythm Solutions and MedSurg. Oct 2, 2026: Boston Scientific agreed with funds managed by Blackstone Life Sciences that they co-fund the development of VITALYST, a temporary heart pump for patients in cardiogenic shock after a heart attack. Boston Scientific can receive up to $455 million until US approval and records it as lower research and development expense. After approval, the funds can receive milestone payments of up to 2.5 times the money that they paid, and royalties on sales. The company disclosed the agreement in its Q3 2026 quarterly report. Sep 21, 2026: Arthur Butcher, Executive Vice President and Group President of MedSurg and Asia Pacific, told the company that he will retire from that role on January 1, 2027. Sep 8, 2026: Boston Scientific said that the cybersecurity incident will likely have a material impact on Q3 and full-year 2026 results, and that it will likely miss its sales growth and adjusted EPS guidance. Distribution centers shipped at or above normal levels again, and manufacturing restarted at most sites. The company will update its outlook on October 28, 2026. Aug 25, 2026: Boston Scientific found a cybersecurity incident that caused a global disruption of its operations, including its ability to process and ship customer orders. Jul 29, 2026: Boston Scientific reported Q2 2026 results. Net sales grew 7.5% to $5.442 billion, and organic growth was 7.0%. Adjusted EPS was $0.86. It lowered its 2026 guidance to organic sales growth of 5% to 6% and adjusted EPS of $3.28 to $3.32, and guided Q3 organic growth of 3% to 5%. It completed a $2 billion accelerated share repurchase of about 40 million shares. Jul 21, 2026: The board approved a 2026 restructuring plan. It expects pre-tax charges of $700 million to $800 million through 2029 and gross annual savings of about $500 million. May 18, 2026: Boston Scientific invested $1.5 billion for about 34% of MiRus, with an option to buy its SIEGEL TAVR valve business for $3 billion more. It also started a $2 billion accelerated share repurchase. May 6, 2026: Penumbra stockholders approved the purchase by Boston Scientific. The FTC asked for more information on March 16, 2026, and the review continues.
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