BIRK changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $33.85 → $36.61(+8.2%)
- Discount category
- Below intrinsic value → Close to intrinsic value
- Next earnings
- Dec 18, 2026 → Dec 10, 2026
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- The market prices Birkenstock for a slowdown after years of fast growth and for share sales by its main shareholder. Investors fear that demand for the brand can fade after years of fast growth. US tariffs and currency translation also lowered the gross margin by 130 basis points in the fiscal third quarter of 2026. The main shareholder, BK LC Lux MidCo, sold more shares in August 2026, which adds supply of shares to the market. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Revenue growth must stay near the 15% in constant currency of fiscal 2026, with growth in all segments and in closed-toe shoes. The adjusted EBITDA margin must stay near 30% despite tariffs and currency. Buybacks must continue to reduce the share count, after the EUR 230 million accelerated buyback in June 2026 and the $500 million redemption in August 2026. The fiscal 2026 removed: report, estimated for about added: report on December removed: 18, added: 10, 2026, and the fiscal 2027 outlook give the next tests. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next three to five quarters. The main reason it may not close is a fall in demand for the brand, which no one can predict.
- Checkpoints
- Dec removed: 18, 2026 (estimate): added: 10, 2026: Fiscal 2026 results and fiscal 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: Fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA of at least EUR 710 million and a fiscal 2027 outlook with low double-digit growth or better pass; a lower margin or a weak growth outlook fail. Feb 13, 2027 (estimate): Fiscal Q1 2027 earnings: demand trend. Pending. Watch: Revenue growth in double digits in constant currency and stable margins pass; slower growth in the Americas or a lower margin fail.
- Recent events
- added: Nov 3, 2026: Birkenstock said that it will report Q4 and full fiscal year 2026 results on December 10, 2026, before the US market opens, and hold a call at 8:00 a.m. Eastern time. Aug 17, 2026: Birkenstock's main shareholder, BK LC Lux MidCo, sold 28,146,226 shares in a secondary offering at $39.35 per share. Birkenstock bought back and cancelled 12,761,613 of these shares for about $500 million. Aug 13, 2026: Birkenstock reported fiscal Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose 13% to EUR 720 million, or 15% in constant currency, with double-digit growth in all segments. Adjusted EBITDA rose 11% to EUR 242 million, with a margin of 33.7%. Adjusted EPS rose 19% to EUR 0.74. The company raised its fiscal 2026 guidance to revenue growth of 15% in constant currency and adjusted EBITDA of at least EUR 710 million. Aug 6, 2026: Alexandre Arnault resigned from the board because of professional commitments. The company is looking for an independent director to fill the seat. Jun 30, 2026: Birkenstock completed a EUR 230 million accelerated share repurchase, which reduced the number of shares by 6 million. On June 16, 2026, it priced EUR 900 million of 4.500% senior notes due 2033 and used part of the money to repay EUR 428.5 million of 5.25% notes due 2029.