BIDU changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $80.14 → $79.76(−0.5%)
- Next earnings
- Nov 18, 2026 → Nov 16, 2026
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- The market fears that AI answers keep shrinking Baidu's search advertising, and it applies a discount for China risk. Online marketing revenue fell 19% from a year earlier to RMB 13.1 billion in Q2 2026, and the legacy business fell 23%. AI Cloud Infra revenue grew 50% to RMB 7.3 billion, but total revenue still fell 4%. Baidu also holds total cash and investments of RMB 283.1 billion, but investors give little value to cash held in China. For the gap to close, three things must be true. The fall in online marketing must slow, so that total revenue grows again. AI Cloud Infra must keep growing fast with better margins. Apollo Go must show a path to profit as it expands outside China. The Q3 2026 report, removed: estimated for about added: on November removed: 18, added: 16, 2026, gives the next test. Even if these checks pass, part of the gap will probably stay, because of US-China tension, the VIE structure and the weighted voting rights. The main reason the gap may not close is a faster loss of search revenue to AI chat products from other companies.
- Checkpoints
- Nov removed: 18, 2026 (estimate): added: 16, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: search decline and AI cloud. Pending. Watch: A slower fall in online marketing revenue and AI Cloud Infra growth of 40% or more pass; a faster fall in marketing revenue or slower cloud growth fail. Feb 26, 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 report: return to growth. Pending. Watch: Total revenue growth from a year earlier in Q4 2026 and higher buybacks pass; another fall in total revenue fails.
- Recent events
- added: Oct 27, 2026: Baidu said that its board will approve the Q3 2026 results on November 16, 2026. Baidu will publish the results that day before the U.S. market opens and hold its earnings call at 7:30 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time. Sep 30, 2026: Baidu bought back about 560,000 Class A shares in Hong Kong on most trading days in September 2026, at prices from about HK$85 to HK$92 per share. Sep 1, 2026: Baidu's conversion to a dual-primary listing on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange became effective. Shareholders approved the related matters at an extraordinary general meeting on August 26, 2026. The conversion issued no new shares. Aug 18, 2026: Baidu reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was RMB 31.3 billion, down 4% from a year earlier. AI-powered Business revenue rose 25% to RMB 12.5 billion, led by AI Cloud Infra, up 50%. Online marketing revenue fell 19%. Non-GAAP net income attributable to Baidu was RMB 2.6 billion, and non-GAAP diluted earnings per ADS was RMB 7.22. Aug 18, 2026: Baidu said that Apollo Go had reached 28 cities and over 240 million fully driverless kilometers. It started fully driverless commercial operations in Dubai and driverless testing in Hong Kong. Baidu had returned US$259 million through buybacks since the start of 2026.