BABA changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $109.91 → $109.45(−0.4%)
- Next earnings
- Nov 24, 2026 → Nov 19, 2026
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- Investors price Alibaba's AI spending as a cost that lowers profit. In the June 2026 quarter, revenue grew 9%, but net income fell 75% and non-GAAP net income fell 38%. Capital spending rose 75% to RMB 67.7 billion, and free cash flow was negative. Subsidies in the quick commerce war against Meituan and JD.com also lower e-commerce profit. The market fears that these costs will stay high and that the AI spending will not earn a good return. For the market to change its view, Alibaba Cloud external revenue growth must stay at 45% or more, AI-related product revenue must continue to grow quickly, and free cash flow must start to improve. In August 2026, Alibaba sold new shares for about HK$80 billion to pay for AI infrastructure. Founder Jack Ma, Chairman Joe Tsai and CEO Eddie Wu then bought shares. A second discount comes from US-China risk. Alibaba's US shares are ADRs, US-listed certificates that represent its shares. They depend on a variable interest entity (VIE) structure, because China limits foreign ownership of the business. On June 8, 2026, the US Department of Defense added Alibaba to its list of Chinese military companies, and Alibaba is suing to get off the list. This discount will probably stay whatever the business does. The next test is the fiscal Q2 2027 removed: report, expected in late added: report on November added: 19, 2026. It will show if Cloud and AI revenue grow faster than the spending. If this growth continues over the next two to four quarters, the market can start to give credit for the AI investment. A court decision on the military list, or a US step toward a trading ban, can change the US-China discount at any time.
- Checkpoints
- Aug 26, 2026: HK$80 billion share placement for AI completes. Passed. Watch: Completion at the agreed price with proceeds used for AI infrastructure passes; a failed or repriced placement fails. Outcome: Alibaba completed the placement of 710 million new shares at HK$112.70 on August 26, 2026. Nov removed: 24, 2026 (estimate): added: 19, 2026: Fiscal Q2 2027 results: Cloud growth against capital spending. Pending. Watch: Alibaba Cloud external revenue growth above 45% and rising AI revenue with a smaller free cash outflow pass; slower Cloud growth or a larger outflow without revenue gains fails. Feb 2027 (estimate): Fiscal Q3 2027 results: margins and quick-commerce losses. Pending. Watch: Higher adjusted EBITA from smaller delivery subsidies and continued Cloud growth pass; falling profit again fails.
- Recent events
- added: Nov 6, 2026: Alibaba said that its board will meet on November 18, 2026 to approve its results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, and that it will announce them on November 19, 2026. Oct 14, 2026: The South China Morning Post, which Alibaba owns, reported that China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology approved Alibaba's Qwen and Wanxiang AI models for use with Apple Intelligence on iPhones in mainland China. Apple has not yet started Apple Intelligence in mainland China. Oct 13, 2026: Alibaba launched the Qwen Glasses N1 series, AI glasses that start at RMB 2,999. Users speak to the Qwen assistant, and the glasses also support shopping and payments. The US shares rose almost 2% before the market opened on October 14. Sep 22, 2026: At its Apsara Conference, CEO Eddie Wu showed the Zhenwu V900 AI chip, which goes into mass production in Q1 2027. He said that the data center capacity that Alibaba Cloud operates will be more than 20 gigawatts by 2032. Alibaba gave no new spending amount. It will open its first cloud regions in Türkiye, Finland and the Netherlands in the next 12 months. The Hong Kong shares rose 5.1% that day. Sep 11, 2026: Anthropic's September threat report said that more than 3,500 fraudulent accounts linked to Alibaba made more than 151 million exchanges with Claude from May to July 2026. Aug 26, 2026: Caixin reported that Jack Ma, Chairman Joe Tsai and CEO Eddie Wu bought Hong Kong shares worth more than HK$800 million after the share sale. Hong Kong filings show HK$202 million from Tsai and Wu. The report of Ma's purchase comes from unnamed sources. Aug 24, 2026: Alibaba released its Wan3.0 AI video model to all users, after a public test that started on August 6, 2026. Aug 23, 2026: Alibaba agreed to sell about 710 million new shares at HK$112.70 to investors outside the US, for about HK$80 billion (about $10.2 billion). All of the money goes to AI computing and data centers. The sale completed on August 26, 2026. Aug 20, 2026: Alibaba reported fiscal Q1 2027 revenue of RMB 269 billion, up 9% year over year. Alibaba Cloud external revenue grew 45%, and AI-related product revenue was RMB 12.4 billion in the quarter. Net income fell 75% and non-GAAP net income fell 38%, because of heavy AI infrastructure spending. Aug 4, 2026: Investors filed a securities class action against Alibaba and CEO Eddie Wu in New York federal court. It says Alibaba described AI and Pentagon-list risks as only possible when they had already started. The lead plaintiff deadline was October 5, 2026. Jul 20, 2026: The European Commission fined AliExpress EUR 550 million under the Digital Services Act for illegal, unsafe and fake products. AliExpress must give an action plan by October 20, 2026. Jul 5, 2026: A US federal court in San Jose temporarily stopped the ban on lobbying that came with the military list. Alibaba sued the Department of Defense in late June 2026 to get off the list. Jun 24, 2026: Bloomberg reported that Anthropic accused Alibaba of using thousands of accounts to copy capabilities from its Claude model. Alibaba ADRs fell about 7% over the next two trading days. Jun 8, 2026: The US Department of Defense added Alibaba to its 1260H list of Chinese military companies. The ADRs fell almost 4%. A US law requires a report on whether companies on this list must move to a Treasury list that stops US investors from trading their securities. May 13, 2026: Alibaba reported fiscal Q4 2026 results. Revenue was RMB 243.38 billion, up 3% year over year. Non-GAAP net income fell 99.7% to RMB 86 million. Alibaba had a loss from operations of RMB 848 million, its first since 2021, because of AI spending and quick commerce subsidies. Apr 17, 2026: China's market regulator fined seven platforms about RMB 3.6 billion in total, including Taobao, Tmall and Ele.me, for food safety and delivery violations during the delivery price war. Feb 13, 2026: The US Department of Defense posted an update that added Alibaba to its list of alleged Chinese military companies. It withdrew the update within hours.