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ATRL

Current
Price
CA$90.62
Discount category
Below intrinsic value
Next earnings
Feb 5, 2027
Next earnings is estimate
Yes
Company name
AtkinsRéalis
Sector
Engineering services & nuclear
About
AtkinsRéalis is a Canadian engineering services and nuclear company with about 43,000 employees. Its Engineering Services Regions (Canada, the United Kingdom and Ireland, the United States and Latin America, and Asia, the Middle East and Australia) design and manage projects in transportation, water, energy, defence and buildings. Its Nuclear segment owns the CANDU reactor technology and provides reactor design, life extension, new build and services. It also has other segments, including Capital. Revenue was a record $3.1 billion (Canadian dollars) in Q3 2026, with Nuclear revenue of $658.2 million. In Q2 2025, it sold its remaining 6.76% interest in Highway 407 ETR for an after-tax gain of $2.2 billion, and it uses the cash for share buybacks and acquisitions.
Thesis
The market doubts the pace of growth in engineering services and the timing of large CANDU contracts. In Q3 2026, organic revenue growth in Engineering Services Regions was only 3.2%, because the conflict in the Middle East slowed the AMEA segment, and the company cut its 2026 outlook for this growth to a low single digit percentage, from 5% to 7%. Nuclear revenue grew 10.3%, but the Nuclear backlog fell to $4.3 billion at September 30, 2026, from $5.4 billion a year earlier, even after the Pickering Unit 5 contract. Total backlog was $20.5 billion. Investors also fear that AI tools can reduce the hours that clients pay for in design work. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Nuclear revenue must reach about $2.7 billion in 2026, as the company expects, and new CANDU contracts must refill the Nuclear backlog. Engineering Services must keep its margin near the 18.0% Segment Adjusted EBITDA to net revenue ratio of Q3 2026 and return to faster organic growth when the Middle East recovers. The company must keep returning cash through buybacks without adding much debt: it drew $489.5 million on its credit facility in Q3 2026 and now has net recourse debt. The Q4 2026 report, estimated for about February 5, 2027, with the 2027 outlook, gives the next test. New CANDU new-build orders in Canada, Romania or the United States over the next year give the larger test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is a delay in large nuclear contracts, because governments decide their timing.
Risks
Large nuclear contracts depend on government decisions, which can be late. Nuclear backlog fell to $4.3 billion at September 30, 2026, from $5.4 billion a year earlier. A delay in new CANDU orders slows growth in the most profitable segment. Organic growth in Engineering Services Regions was 3.2% in Q3 2026, and the company now expects only low single digit growth for 2026 because the conflict in the Middle East slowed the AMEA segment. Lower public spending, delayed projects or AI tools that reduce paid hours can slow this business further. The company makes many small acquisitions under its Land and Expand strategy. If integration fails or it pays too much, returns fall. Acquisition and integration costs were $22.5 million in Q3 2026. Cash fell from $1,156.5 million to $910.0 million in the first nine months of 2026, and recourse debt rose to $1,186.1 million, because of buybacks and acquisitions. More buybacks leave less cash for a weaker period.
Balance sheet
Cash: CA$910M Debt: CA$1.2B Net debt: CA$276M EBITDA, last 12 months: CA$1.1B Net debt / EBITDA: 0.2× (low) Undrawn credit line: CA$710M Last debt due: 2033 AtkinsRéalis has low debt, but it now has more recourse debt than cash. At September 30, 2026, recourse debt was $1,186.1 million (Canadian dollars): the Series 9 and Series 10 debentures of $700 million and $489.5 million drawn in Q3 2026 under the revolving facility. Cash was $910.0 million. Net limited recourse and recourse debt was $276.1 million, a ratio of 0.2 times adjusted EBITDA of $1,125.9 million for the 12 months to September 30, 2026, compared to a negative ratio of 0.5 times at December 31, 2025. The change comes from share buybacks of $561.5 million in the first nine months of 2026 and from acquisitions. The committed revolving facility of $1,250.0 million had $710.4 million unused. Its covenant requires net recourse debt to EBITDA of no more than 3.25 times. The debentures mature in June 2031 and March 2033. As of Sep 30, 2026.
Checkpoints
Sep 21, 2026: New CANDU contracts. Passed. Watch: A new CANDU new-build or life extension contract in Canada, Romania or another country by mid-2027 passes; no new large nuclear award and a falling Nuclear backlog fail. Outcome: In September 2026, a joint venture of Candu Energy and Aecon won a contract of about $1.7 billion for the Pickering Unit 5 refurbishment. Nov 5, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: Nuclear and engineering margins. Failed. Watch: Nuclear revenue on track for about $2.7 billion in 2026, faster organic growth in Engineering Services and steady margins pass; a cut in the outlook or a lower backlog fail. Outcome: Nuclear revenue stayed on track and margins rose, but the company cut its 2026 organic growth outlook for Engineering Services Regions to a low single digit percentage because of the conflict in the Middle East. Feb 5, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 earnings and 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: Nuclear revenue of about $2.7 billion for 2026, a 2027 outlook with faster organic growth in Engineering Services and a higher Nuclear backlog pass; a weaker 2027 outlook or a further fall in the Nuclear backlog fails. 2027 (estimate): CANDU new-build contract. Pending. Watch: A contract to build new CANDU reactors in Canada, Romania or another country during 2027 passes; no new-build award by the end of 2027 fails.
Recent events
Nov 9, 2026: AtkinsRéalis priced a private offering of $400 million of 4.062% Series 11 unsecured debentures due November 12, 2029. It will use the money to repay debt and for general corporate purposes. S&P gave the debentures a provisional BBB- rating. Nov 5, 2026: AtkinsRéalis reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue was a record $3.1 billion, up 10.7%, and Adjusted EBITDA was a record $330.6 million, up 14.3%. Adjusted diluted EPS rose 9% to $1.20. Nuclear revenue rose 10.3% to $658.2 million. Backlog was $20.5 billion. The company cut its 2026 organic revenue growth outlook for Engineering Services Regions to a low single digit percentage, from 5% to 7%, mainly because of the conflict in the Middle East, and kept its other 2026 targets. Nov 5, 2026: AtkinsRéalis returned $238.9 million to shareholders in Q3 2026 through buybacks and dividends. In Q3 2026, it bought Tobin in Ireland and WGA in Australia and New Zealand for $156.4 million in cash, and it drew $489.5 million under its revolving credit facility. The board kept the quarterly dividend at $0.02 per share. Oct 6, 2026: AtkinsRéalis said it will release its Q3 2026 results before the market opens on November 5, 2026, and hold its call that morning. Sep 21, 2026: Ontario Power Generation awarded a three-year contract of about $1.7 billion to a 50:50 joint venture of Candu Energy, an AtkinsRéalis company, and Aecon. The contract covers engineering, design, project delivery and project management for the Retube, Feeder and Boiler Replacement work on Pickering Unit 5, the first of four units. AtkinsRéalis adds its share to the Nuclear backlog in Q3 2026. The refurbishment is planned to start in January 2027, subject to regulatory approval. Aug 6, 2026: AtkinsRéalis reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue rose 10.0% to $3.0 billion. Adjusted EBITDA was a quarterly record of $292.9 million, and adjusted diluted EPS rose 20% to $0.97. Net income attributable to shareholders was $95.7 million. Backlog was $20.2 billion. The company raised its 2026 Nuclear revenue outlook to about $2.7 billion from about $2.5 billion and kept its other targets. Aug 6, 2026: AtkinsRéalis returned $245.0 million to shareholders in Q2 2026, mostly through buybacks of $242 million. It announced the purchases of WGA and Coras Solutions in Australia and TOBIN in Ireland. The board kept the quarterly dividend at $0.02 per share. In the quarter, the company also issued $400 million of 4.411% Series 9 debentures due June 2031 and $300 million of 4.756% Series 10 debentures due March 2033, and it used the money to redeem its Series 7 and Series 8 debentures. Mar 13, 2026: The Toronto Stock Exchange approved the renewal of the company's normal course issuer bid. It allows the company to buy back up to 13,649,009 common shares for cancellation.
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