APP changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $391.22 → $404.77(+3.5%)
- Thesis
- Investors now doubt AppLovin's AI-driven ad story. On August 5, 2026, the company said that its generative AI video tool was still a work in progress, and that its AI models improved more slowly than usual. removed: Revenue also missed consensus estimates that day. A securities fraud lawsuit followed in September 2026. It alleges AppLovin overstated how consistently its AI models were improving. Analysts also doubt the e-commerce expansion. Bank of America flagged soft June e-commerce growth in July 2026, and Wells Fargo found in September 2026 that most new merchant sites showed no traffic. Another analyst warned that AppLovin's market-share growth has stalled against Unity. On October 2, 2026, a court refused AppLovin's request to stop Unity from using its ad data, so that dispute goes to slower arbitration. The gap can close if AppLovin ships the delayed video tool and keeps improving its Axon AI model on a visible schedule. AppLovin Ads opened to all advertisers in June 2026. It must also show that these e-commerce advertisers spend at scale and stay. On November 4, 2026, Q3 2026 revenue rose 55% to $2,185 million, above the guidance of $2,055 to $2,085 million. The Q4 2026 guidance of $2,365 to $2,395 million means sequential growth of about 8% to 10%. The earnings release and the 10-Q gave no e-commerce figures and no date for the video tool. The Q4 2026 report, expected in early February 2027, is the next test of e-commerce scale. The lawsuits will likely run well into 2027, so the legal issue will not lift soon. If execution improves and e-commerce results firm up over the next two to four quarters, the discount can close. If the growth slowdown proves durable, it may not.
- Recent events
- Nov 4, 2026: AppLovin reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose 55% to $2,185 million, above its guidance of $2,055 to $2,085 million. Net income rose 72% to $1,439 million, adjusted EBITDA was $1,842 million and free cash flow was $1,418 million. It bought back and withheld 4.1 million shares for $1.4 billion in the quarter, and the board added about $3.2 billion to the buyback, for $3.6 billion available at the end of October 2026. It guided Q4 2026 revenue to $2,365 to $2,395 million and adjusted EBITDA to $1,995 to $2,025 million. Oct 29, 2026: Holders of about 67% of the voting power, led by CEO Adam Foroughi, approved by written consent a move of AppLovin's incorporation from Delaware to Nevada. The move can take effect no earlier than 20 days after AppLovin mails an information statement to shareholders. Oct 7, 2026: A shareholder filed a derivative complaint in the Northern District of California against AppLovin's directors, its CEO and its CFO. It follows the securities class action of September 2026. Oct 5, 2026: San Diego County sued AppLovin in San Diego Superior Court. The county alleges that AppLovin went around parental controls to show explicit, alcohol and vaping ads on children's devices. It also alleges that AppLovin tracked children's devices without consent. The claims use California's false advertising and unfair competition laws. Oct 2, 2026: News reports said that the San Francisco Superior Court denied AppLovin's request for a temporary restraining order against Unity. The ruling covers only temporary relief. The dispute itself continues in private arbitration. The stock fell about 5% that day, to its lowest close of the past year. Sep 30, 2026: A Wells Fargo analyst note questioned AppLovin's e-commerce growth. Wells Fargo found that AppLovin added about 220 merchant sites a week from June to August 2026. In the last two weeks it checked, about 85% of new sites showed no measurable traffic, against about 30% before June. It does not expect real e-commerce growth before 2027. The stock fell about 5% that day. Sep 28, 2026: AppLovin asked the San Francisco Superior Court for a temporary restraining order against Unity, one day after it started an arbitration claim. AppLovin alleges that Unity's Ad Quality software kit collected data on ads that AppLovin served through its MAX platform, to train Unity's own ad models. Unity rejected the claims and called the suit a response to more competition. Sep 23, 2026: Edgewater Research analyst Joe Wittine warned that AppLovin's market-share growth has stalled. He forecast only 8% to 9% sequential revenue growth in Q4 2026, as its MAX platform nears a functional ceiling. He named Unity as a growing competitive threat. The stock fell about 4% that day. Sep 16, 2026: A securities fraud class action (Talbot v. AppLovin) was filed in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California against AppLovin, its CEO and its CFO. It covers buyers from February 12, 2026 through August 5, 2026. It alleges that the company overstated how consistently its AI models were improving and understated delays in its generative AI video tool. The lead-plaintiff deadline is November 16, 2026. Aug 5, 2026: AppLovin reported Q2 2026 revenue of $1.92 billion, up 53% from last removed: year but below the $1.94 billion analysts expected. added: year. It guided Q3 2026 revenue to $2.055 to $2.085 billion. The company said its generative AI video ad tool was still a work in progress. On the call, the CFO said the SEC had closed its separate 2025 inquiry with no recommended action. The stock fell 19.7%, from $417.80 to $335.67, the next day. Jul 13, 2026: A Bank of America analyst note flagged soft June 2026 e-commerce growth for AppLovin: about 750 new merchant tracking pixels in June, against about 950 in May. The removed: analyst kept a Buy rating. The stock fell 12.7% that day. Jun 22, 2026: AppLovin renamed its self-serve e-commerce ad tool, Axon Ads Manager, to AppLovin Ads and opened it to all advertisers. Since October 2025, only referred brands could use it. On the same day, Fitch raised AppLovin's credit rating to BBB+. Oct 6, 2025: News reports said that the SEC had opened an investigation into AppLovin's data-collection practices, after a series of short-seller reports. The stock fell about 14% that day.