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View the full Oct 31, 2026 version

Price: $79.35 → $79.31(−0.1%)
Discount category: Well below intrinsic value → Below intrinsic value
Next earnings: Oct 28, 2026 → Jan 28, 2027
Next earnings is estimate: No → Yes
About: Amphenol designs and makes connectors, cables, antennas and sensors. Its products carry power and data inside AI servers and data centers, cars, airplanes, factory equipment, phones and communication networks. It reports three segments: Communications Solutions, Harsh Environment Solutions, and Interconnect and Sensor Systems. Communications Solutions is the largest, with removed: $5.4 added: $6.6 billion of the removed: $8.8 added: $10.2 billion of sales in removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026. The IT datacom market, which includes AI data centers, gave $3.8 billion of sales in Q2 2026. Amphenol grows partly by buying companies. In Q1 2026, it completed the purchase of CommScope's Connectivity and Cable Solutions (CCS) business, and it expects this business to bring about removed: $4.6 added: $5.1 billion of sales in 2026. added: In September 2026, it bought Empire Electronics, a maker of interconnect assemblies for cars, and in October 2026 it had agreements to buy three more companies. Amphenol did a 2-for-1 stock split in September 2026, and the per-share figures in this profile are adjusted for the split.
Thesis: Amphenol trades at a discount because investors fear that its growth depends on AI data center spending that can slow. In Q2 2026, IT datacom sales grew 63% on an organic basis to $3.8 billion, about 43% of total sales. If the large cloud companies cut their AI budgets, these orders can fall fast. Investors also watch the cost of the CommScope CCS purchase, which Amphenol paid for with cash and new debt. Debt was removed: $18.8 added: $17.9 billion at removed: June added: September 30, 2026, against removed: $5.4 added: $5.3 billion of cash and short-term investments. removed: Part added: Amphenol also keeps buying companies: the four purchases it announced in its Q3 2026 report cost about $1.6 billion in total. The Q3 2026 report on October 28, 2026 passed the first test. Sales of added: $10.2 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.80 were above the removed: Q2 added: guidance, and the book-to-bill was 1.19. Amphenol now expects $5.1 billion of 2026 removed: margin also came added: sales from removed: an $80 million benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds, which will not repeat. added: CommScope, more than the $4.6 billion it expected in July. For the gap to close, orders must removed: stay added: keep staying above sales, removed: as they did with a book-to-bill of 1.23 in Q2 2026, Amphenol must reach its removed: Q3 added: Q4 2026 guidance of removed: $9.3 added: $10.3 to removed: $9.4 added: $10.5 billion of sales and removed: $0.70 added: $0.81 to removed: $0.71 added: $0.83 of removed: split-adjusted adjusted EPS, and growth must spread beyond IT datacom to markets such as defense, industrial and automotive. removed: CommScope must also reach its expected 2026 sales of $4.6 billion. The removed: first added: next test is the removed: Q3 2026 report on October 28, 2026. The second test is the Q4 2026 report, expected in late January 2027, with the first view of 2027. If orders stay strong, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. The main risk is a cut in AI data center spending that reduces orders.
Risks: IT datacom sales were $3.8 billion in Q2 2026, about 43% of total sales, and grew 63% on an organic basis from AI demand. A small number of large cloud companies drive this spending. If they cut their AI budgets, orders can fall fast. Amphenol paid about $10.6 billion, net of cash acquired, for acquisitions in Q1 2026, mainly CommScope CCS, and issued $3.6 billion of new debt. Debt was removed: $18.8 added: $17.9 billion at removed: June added: September 30, 2026. added: In October 2026, Amphenol said that four more purchases cost about $1.6 billion in total. If CommScope removed: does added: or the new companies do not reach removed: its added: their expected sales, the removed: purchase added: purchases can earn a low return. Part of the margin in Q2 2026 came from an $80 million benefit from IEEPA tariff removed: refunds. added: refunds, and about $15 million in Q3 2026. New tariffs on parts that Amphenol makes outside the US can raise its costs. added: Tax costs rise. In the first nine months of 2026, Amphenol added: recorded $290 million of tax charges for China, after unfavorable decisions by Chinese tax authorities and a review of tax rates for earlier years. It raised its adjusted tax rate to 27.0%. Amphenol sells into cyclical markets, such as automotive, industrial and mobile devices. A slowdown in these markets can lower sales when AI growth slows too.
Balance sheet: Cash: removed: $5.4B added: $5.3B Debt: removed: $18.8B added: $17.9B Net debt: removed: $13.4B added: $12.6B Interest cover: removed: 11× added: 12× Debt due within 12 months: removed: $1.6B added: $701M At removed: June added: September 30, 2026, Amphenol had removed: $4.7 added: $4.2 billion of cash and removed: $0.7 added: $1.1 billion of short-term investments. Debt was removed: $18.8 added: $17.9 billion, of which removed: $1.6 added: $0.7 billion was due within one year. Debt added: fell from $18.8 billion at June 30, 2026, because Amphenol repaid $0.9 billion of senior notes and other debt in Q3 2026. Debt rose in Q1 2026, when Amphenol issued removed: $3.6 billion of senior notes and other long-term debt and used cash to buy CommScope CCS. Interest cover is operating income of removed: $4.4 added: $7.4 billion divided by interest expense of removed: $421.6 added: $634 million in the first removed: half added: nine months of 2026. Free cash flow was removed: $1.2 added: $1.6 billion in removed: Q2 2026. added: Q3 2026 and $3.7 billion in the first nine months. In removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026, Amphenol bought back removed: 1.5 added: 3.0 million shares removed: before the split for removed: $208 added: $245 million and paid removed: $307.3 added: $308 million of dividends. added: The four purchases it announced on October 28, 2026 cost about $1.6 billion, paid with cash and debt. Empire Electronics closed in September 2026, and the other three should close in Q4 2026 or Q1 2027. As of removed: Jun added: Sep 30, 2026.
Checkpoints: Oct 28, 2026: Q3 2026 results: orders and IT datacom. removed: Pending. added: Passed. Watch: Sales within or above $9.3 to $9.4 billion, split-adjusted adjusted EPS of at least $0.70, and a book-to-bill above 1 pass; a book-to-bill below 1 or lower IT datacom orders fail. added: Outcome: Sales of $10.23 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.80 were above the guidance, and record orders of $12.2 billion gave a book-to-bill of 1.19. Jan added: 28, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 view. Pending. Watch: Organic growth in markets beyond IT datacom and CommScope sales near removed: $4.6 added: $5.1 billion for 2026 pass; falling orders or weak CommScope sales fail.
Recent events: added: Oct 28, 2026: Amphenol reported record Q3 2026 results. Sales were $10.23 billion, up 65%, and up 37% on an organic basis. Orders were $12.2 billion, with a book-to-bill of 1.19. The adjusted operating margin was 29.7%, and adjusted EPS was $0.80, up 74%. Sales and adjusted EPS were both above the top of the guidance. Amphenol raised its 2026 sales expectation for the CommScope CCS business to $5.1 billion from $4.6 billion. It guided Q4 2026 sales of $10.3 to $10.5 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.81 to $0.83. Oct 28, 2026: Amphenol said that it bought Empire Electronics, a maker of interconnect assemblies for cars, at the start of September 2026. It also agreed to buy AdvancedPCB, Dexgreen and the sensor business of Humanetics. The four purchases cost about $1.6 billion in total, paid with cash and debt. The board raised the quarterly dividend 20% to $0.15 per share and approved a new three-year, $4 billion share buyback from January 1, 2027. Oct 6, 2026: Amphenol said that Ryan Fisher, head of its North American Military Group, will become President of the Harsh Environment Solutions Division on January 1, 2027. He follows Luc Walter, who moves to a new role as Senior Vice President, Strategic Programs, after 43 years at Amphenol. Sep 2, 2026: Amphenol completed its 2-for-1 stock split. Shareholders of record on August 17, 2026 received one more share for each share. The Q3 2026 dividend became $0.125 per share after the split, payable on October 14, 2026. Aug 6, 2026: Amphenol announced the 2-for-1 stock split, which the Board approved on August 5, 2026. It restated its Q3 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $0.70 to $0.71 after the split. Jul 29, 2026: Amphenol reported record Q2 2026 results. Sales were $8.76 billion, up 55%, and up 30% on an organic basis. Orders were $10.7 billion, with a book-to-bill of 1.23. The adjusted operating margin was 29.8%, including an $80 million benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds. Split-adjusted adjusted EPS was $0.675. Amphenol raised its 2026 sales expectation for the CommScope CCS business to $4.6 billion from $4.1 billion. It guided Q3 2026 sales of $9.3 to $9.4 billion. Apr 29, 2026: Amphenol reported Q1 2026 results. Sales were $7.6 billion, up 58%, and up 33% on an organic basis. Orders were $9.4 billion, with a book-to-bill of 1.24. Split-adjusted adjusted EPS was $0.53, up 68%. Amphenol completed the purchase of CommScope's CCS business in the quarter and paid $10.6 billion, net of cash acquired, for acquisitions in Q1 2026.