ADSK changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $239.90 → $261.72(+9.1%)
- Discount category
- Below intrinsic value → Close to intrinsic value
- Next earnings
- Nov 27, 2026 → Nov 24, 2026
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- Autodesk trades at a discount because investors fear that AI tools can make 3D models without its software and reduce the number of paid seats. On September 3, 2026, OpenAI released GPT-6 Astra, a model that can turn photos and drawings into CAD models. In late September 2026, Piper Sandler cut its price target and named the risk that AI commoditizes the interface or reduces seats. A second concern is Autodesk's own numbers: in Q2 fiscal 2027, revenue grew 16%, but billings grew only 10% and total remaining performance obligations grew only 2%, because Autodesk gives fewer discounts for multi-year contracts. The $3.6 billion MaintainX purchase also added $2.0 billion of short-term borrowing. For the gap to close, Autodesk must reach its fiscal 2027 guidance of $8.575 to $8.650 billion of billings and about $2.7 billion of free cash flow, current remaining performance obligations must keep growing near 12%, and its own AI features must add revenue instead of replacing seats. MaintainX must also keep its growth while Autodesk repays the commercial paper and the term loan. The first test is the Q3 fiscal 2027 removed: report, expected in late added: report on November added: 24, 2026. The second test is the Q4 report and the fiscal 2028 guidance, expected in late February 2027. If billings and seat counts hold, the gap can close over the next three to five quarters. The main risk is that AI design tools take seats from AutoCAD and Fusion faster than Autodesk can sell AI features.
- Checkpoints
- Nov removed: 27, 2026 (estimate): added: 24, 2026: Q3 fiscal 2027 results: billings and seats. Pending. Watch: Revenue at or above the $2.125 to $2.140 billion guidance, current remaining performance obligations that still grow near 12%, and unchanged fiscal 2027 billings guidance pass; lower billings guidance or signs of fewer seats fail. Feb 2027 (estimate): Q4 fiscal 2027 results and fiscal 2028 guidance. Pending. Watch: Free cash flow of about $2.7 billion for fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028 guidance with double-digit billings growth pass; guidance that shows slower subscription growth from AI tools fails. Aug 2027 (estimate): Term loan repayment after MaintainX. Pending. Watch: Repayment or refinancing of the $1.0 billion term loan from cash flow, with buybacks still running, passes; a need to raise long-term debt to repay it fails.
- Recent events
- added: Nov 2, 2026: Autodesk said that it will discuss its Q3 fiscal 2027 results on a call on November 24, 2026, at 2 p.m. Pacific time. Oct 6, 2026: Autodesk named Diana Colella executive vice president of its architecture, engineering and construction (AEC) business, its largest industry business. She follows Amy Bunszel, who retires and stays until November 2, 2026, to help with the change. Colella leads the Forma industry cloud and desktop products such as Revit and Civil 3D. She worked at Autodesk for almost 30 years and most recently led the AI change of the Media and Entertainment business. Sep 28, 2026: Piper Sandler kept its Overweight rating but cut its price target to $300 from $338. It said that AI could commoditize the interface or reduce seats at Autodesk, after OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra release. Sep 24, 2026: UBS kept its Buy rating and its $325 target after more than 25 industry conversations. It found no sign that AI displaces core CAD systems and said that most industry participants see Autodesk as a net beneficiary of AI. Sep 3, 2026: OpenAI released GPT-6 Astra, a model that can build CAD models from photos and drawings. OpenAI reported a score of 95.9% on the BenchCAD benchmark. Users connected it to Autodesk Inventor and Fusion. Aug 27, 2026: Autodesk reported Q2 fiscal 2027 results. Revenue was $2.05 billion, up 16%, and billings were $1.85 billion, up 10%. The non-GAAP operating margin was 41%. Free cash flow was $561 million. Current remaining performance obligations grew 12%, but total remaining performance obligations grew only 2%, because Autodesk gives fewer multi-year discounts. Autodesk raised its fiscal 2027 revenue guidance to $8.295 to $8.345 billion, including MaintainX. Aug 3, 2026: Autodesk completed its purchase of MaintainX for about $3.6 billion in cash. It drew a $1.0 billion 364-day term loan on the same day, at a weighted-average rate of 4.58%, and also used $1.0 billion of commercial paper and its own cash. Jun 15, 2026: Autodesk signed a $1.0 billion delayed-draw term loan to fund MaintainX and raised its revolving credit facility from $1.5 billion to $2.0 billion. In July 2026, it also started a commercial paper program of up to $2.0 billion. May 28, 2026: Autodesk reported Q1 fiscal 2027 results. Revenue was $1.93 billion, up 18%. It raised its fiscal 2027 guidance and agreed to buy MaintainX, which expected more than $135 million of annual recurring revenue in 2026.